Historically a $1T market cap with a PE of 20.0 would be achievable with a $50B/yr profit. That seems easily achievable eventually for SpaceX, as it has actual hardware and services and IP.

> Historically a $1T market cap with a PE of 20.0 would be achievable with a $50B/yr profit. That seems easily achievable eventually for SpaceX, as it has actual hardware and services and IP.

It seems crazy to me to make a comparison between a company being valued on it's current profit and then to say it's reasonable for another company to have the same market cap because it could eventually have the same profit.

It's years away from $50B/year profit, if it ever gets there. The IPO valuation is insane.

It does have real hardware, but it’s not in wild growth areas. They’re making their most consistent money from Starlink, which is a solid product but has growth limited by competitors from conventional ISPs with far-superior fiber networks, and the space launch business is similarly not the kind of thing where you get Google/Facebook-level growth curves. That’s not a slight, it’s just different industries: advertising companies can grow rapidly because scaling customers is so much easier than launching cargo into orbit.

The wildcard there is AI, and that seems especially dangerous to project long-term revenue from their current performance: xAI is barely in the market except renting capacity to Anthropic, so you’re gambling that they’ll continue to pay $1¼B/month for what is largely a commodity offering. Even if you’re bullish on Anthropic, that doesn’t mean xAI gets part of their profits, and given the way they blindsided the local authorities there’s a substantially greater than zero chance that they’ll get a major setback if the neighbors win their lawsuits. That doesn’t mean they’re doomed, but anyone estimating their future performance has to factor in some real risks.

Yet, I, a relative peasant financially has been hit by 3 different brokers that I'm eligible to participate in the offering. I would hazard a guess they are not getting the uptake in institutional money they were hoping for.