The Dotcom bubble is an interesting comparison.

The general thrust that everything would be online was correct, it was just that the market mistimed and misallocated of capital by a decade or more. There was massive spending on infrastructure capacity that we wouldn't end up needing until the 2010s. There were hype driven valuations completely disconnected from business fundamentals just because a company was an 'internet' company. Things were going from cutting edge to obsolete in less than a year. There were breathless promises that this was business 2.0! Of course, none of that sounds remotely like what is going on today...

I'm optimistic about AI, but I also don't think that it is going to change everything as fast as promised.

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threetonesun 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The question you always have to ask is what problems does it directly solve. I personally think most of the current problems in software development and really the world at large are not time-bound problems but alignment issues, and all an LLM can really do there is be some 3rd party oracle that gives you an answer without needing other humans to agree with you.

	▲	squidbeak an hour ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> The question you always have to ask is what problems does it directly solve Most directly, human labour. Labour is always a problem for capital. At a certain level of AI competence, businesses don't need to pay humans to complete the work they need doing in order to operate. I don't think anyone would dispute AI competence isn't growing steadily.
	▲	rafterydj 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I agree with you. I think that if we're talking about actual reliable problem solving, we have to be discussing robotic / drone systems. Software is as complex as you want to make it, and always has been.