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giancarlostoro 2 hours ago

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space.

In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more about alzheimers, new antibiotics, precision targeting in oncology, using AI to flag healthcare anomalies in imaging. The benefits are easy to miss, but they're snowballing into place, there's definitely an explosion of useless crap, but you have to look for the real things and you will come to find, that AI is giving us things we otherwise either might not have discovered or wouldn't have within our lifetimes.

rockskon an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Isn't AI routinely making significant mistakes in analyzing medical imaging?

stingraycharles an hour ago | parent | next [-]

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

haldujai an hour ago | parent | next [-]

It’s actually quite a lot worse than even doctors in training except for highly constrained experimental settings and a few very nice applications that are mostly too tedious/impractical for a human to do or are very basic detection tasks.

I am a radiologist and researcher predominately focused on AI.

nesk_ 11 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

A friend of mine, a dermatologist, told me that LLMs are quite performant for melanoma analysis. Based on their own statistics, LLMs are able to beat humans with ~10 years of experience in the field.

They will never beat the human instinct tho, but they can be great tools sometimes. Unfortunately, LLMs mostly produce garbage.

marcus_holmes an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Thanks for the informed take :)

Do you think this will result in more routine/boring/tedious tests? Is the bottleneck on these things the human time to analyse them?

haldujai 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

I don’t think so, not beyond the current trend in medicine which is going up anyway.

For some things, like 3D volume segmentation of structure or disease (e.g. CVA/stroke volume, cardiac muscle mass, iron quantification) the bottleneck is the time it takes so we currently use approximations like single longest dimension, circular regions of interest, etc. AI will dramatically increase accuracy allowing for more accurate treatment and easier large scale research with quantitative endpoints.

Other things people think of like detection of aneurysms, fracture, lung nodules are not “hard” but AI has already added and will continue to add the second-reader benefit which will reduce detection errors. For this category the clinical benefit is as of yet unclear and we know that increased detection does not necessarily translate into improved patient outcomes and can in fact make them worse from over-diagnosis which means investigation related harms and over-treatment.

We were already in a phase of “over detection” in much of radiology with advances in imaging technology so the incremental benefit of current AI remains to be seen and I personally think is going to be much more limited. I had a case recently where a 2 mm brain aneurysm was missed on 3 CT scans over 10 years but was picked up by AI so now is being followed annually. This is too small to treat considering the risks and a serious argument could be made that 10 years of stability is proof enough that this is almost certainly clinically irrelevant for this patient.

Far more interesting areas of AI in imaging are in acquisition of acceleration (i.e. the medical equivalent of upscaling) which can dramatically decrease costs and increase accessibility as well as analyzing imperceptible features.

It may not be a popular take here but in my opinion the future of radiology is like what we see in software engineering today - a skilled human equipped with AI will outperform humans without AI and AI without humans, the latter of which we are still several years away from prototyping due to various technical hurdles.

goda90 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

With these kinds of things, I want to see comparisons to trained, alert humans. Cut out all the distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, intoxicated cases from the baseline. That includes rushed doctors at the end of a long shift.

A self driving car doing better than a drunk on the freeway doesn't reassure me that it'll do better than sober me in a snowstorm.

BobbyTables2 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I’ve seen the same. But I don’t see that as a glowing beacon of progress.

A whole lot of doctors, if not most, didn’t pick their profession out of an interest in medicine…

koolba an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

It’s so good it even sees things that are not there!

themafia 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> they've produced the cheapest way

Were we struggling to do this before? Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Was some other achievement held back because we couldn't accomplish this? What is now enabled?

> to get any payload into space.

A limited set of payloads into space. No vehicle can get "any payload" to space at a fixed price.

> The benefits are easy to miss,

You've listed a bunch of reasons to publish papers. What is the actual ground level change that's occurred? Are those antibiotics produced? Do they actually work just as predicted? Why is that first world problems are exclusively listed but basic problems like world hunger are never even approached?

> or wouldn't have within our lifetimes.

And your life, your actual life, benefits, how?

JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Were we struggling to do this before?

We literally couldn't.

> Was the overall percentage reduction in costs?

Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does.

> What is now enabled?

LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

duttish an hour ago | parent | next [-]

If SpaceX was only Starlink or only Starlink and rockets it would be an horrible circumvention of the rules.

But now he's also trying to get the indexes to pay for the giant cash fire called X.ai and the far right huddle Twitter too.

I have zero interest in owning anything of either of those companies.

alpha_squared an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Granted, I only skimmed some high-line numbers, but isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets.

JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent [-]

> isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets

Yes. The thing that’s going public is almost entirely an AI play.

harimau777 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I think you missed the core of their question: What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?

JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent | next [-]

> What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?

Starlink has made connectivity cheaper and more available. Earth imaging has made various food production processes more efficient. Weather forecasts have become more accurate.

If you’ve genuinely missed the massive economy that LEO has become, it will be a fun thing to catch up on.

autoexec 37 minutes ago | parent [-]

> Starlink has made connectivity cheaper and more available.

Yeah that's working out great for the average American isn't it (https://natlawreview.com/press-releases/2026-consumer-trust-...)

> Earth imaging has made various food production processes more efficient.

I'm not even going to bother sourcing the fact that food prices have only massively gone up negating any gains in productivity. The average American struggling to buy basics like eggs and meat aren't feasting on more efficient food production.

> Weather forecasts have become more accurate.

I'm sure the growing homeless population is happy to know they can better predict the weather they'll be sleeping in.

This is all totally worth supporting a nazi billionaire

JumpCrisscross 15 minutes ago | parent [-]

> that's working out great for the average American isn't it

Yeah. It did. My neighbour’s rates went up. He switched to Starlink.

> not even going to bother sourcing the fact that food prices have only massively gone up negating

This is like arguing fertilisers are useless because prices went up.

> homeless population

Not super relevant!

> all totally worth supporting a nazi billionaire

Nobody said that. But it doesn’t mean the benefits go away.

usef- an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Do we apply a bar this high for any other company/job/business? Saving gov/tax money aka "billing NASA 1/20th what SLS does" doesn't count as worth it to you?

Reusing rockets reliably rather than "throwing them away" is a great achievement and I'm surprised people have to justify it on HN

mandeepj 29 minutes ago | parent [-]

> Reusing rockets reliably rather than "throwing them away" is a great achievement and I'm surprised people have to justify it on HN

You can milk a cow only a set number of times!

usef- 3 minutes ago | parent [-]

Yes, because you're not designing the cow. Progress on reusability is not completed, btw, there's a lot still to improve.

airstrike an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Stock prices indicate the present value of all future dividends, so it's not about what has happened but about the risk-adjusted expected value of all which is to come.

What probability you assign to arrive at that expected value and how you adjust for risk is on you.

cowmix 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

waterheater 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

On one order, correct, but it's still on the order of hundreds of millions to billions.

Also, keep in mind that a stock price discounts expected future cash flows. Is it likely that SpaceX will have a near-peer competitor within a few years? No, it's not, and that market share is being priced-in.

hattmall an hour ago | parent [-]

Is it likely that SpaceX will have actual reasonable demand? Their major customer is Starlink. How legitimately confident are we in the numbers with regard to price reduction vs creative accounting to offload costs to Starlink and subsidize the launches to appear to offer huge cost reductions?

If there exists sufficient demand for the product of space launches then it's probably reasonable to expect their to be a near-peer competitor soon, but that's only if SpaceX were to be profitable, which it isn't, even with the subsidization by Starlink on the order of many billions.

giancarlostoro 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Sure but SpaceX can get you into orbit for $1400 per kilogram, and future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram. The competition is at $15,000 per kilogram. I think it's a no-brainer for anybody trying to get anything into orbit. Unless someone figures out superior tech that surpasses SpaceX, I'm just not seeing why anyone would spend more for less capable and costly rockets.