| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago |
| I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash. |
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| ▲ | bunderbunder 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do. |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating? | | |
| ▲ | bunderbunder 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | They’ve claimed a big revenue run rate for this quarter. But it’s non-GAAP, so you kind of have to assume shenanigans. Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. I consider the number they came up with when they had to worry about committing perjury to be more trustworthy (because I’m a pill), so that would also indicate shenanigans. My guess is they are inflating that revenue run rate figure by booking token pre-payments from enterprise contracts now instead of spreading it over time as GAAP would mandate. And at the same time their big enterprise clients are talking about scaling back their usage. So we’ve got a combination of signs that they’ve been inflating their revenue growth, and signs that their customers are losing their appetite for contributing to that revenue growth. I suppose it’s not a slam dunk, but it feels to me like as strong an indicator as one could hope for a private blitzscaler startup like this. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Oh, to be clear, I'm not saying there is evidence they're all a-okay. I just hadn't seen any evidence that they were stalling out. (I have for OpenAI.) |
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| ▲ | Eufrat 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The same evidence that they are growing. Tea leaves. |
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| ▲ | Avicebron 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What are they offering the public (not me and you writing code in our free time)? |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | They are offering the public an opportunity to become shareholders and they are giving their investors and employees liquidity. | | |
| ▲ | Avicebron 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I mean as a long-term product, not as a offer to join a hype cycle. | | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Automating a large portion of existing white collar work, accelerating scientific discoveries, brain for robotics, etc. These are compelling offers. | | |
| ▲ | Avicebron 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Sure, how does that benefit the public? | | |
| ▲ | ArmadilloGang 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Short term, nations with a high rate of white collar employment and fewer social services will suffer greatly. Eventually, and likely in the lifetimes of most people living today, we would have to see something akin to universal basic income (UBI) that covers the necessities in order to stave off massive civil unrest. If the white collar labor of human beings can’t compete with the output of AI, we either all become blue collar workers or we re-invent the concepts of work and play. I’m not aware of any existing or proposed economy framework that adequately accounts for the automation that is nearly here at scale. We are not just automating away jobs - we are automating away the value that human beings have within a productive community. Before the mass starvation will come the mass suicide. Our culture teaches us that a feeling of self worth is derived from our perceived productivity. If we cannot feel successful, we may lose our wills to live. | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't know. Some will benefit, some will not. The topic here is the IPOs. | |
| ▲ | justapassenger 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | What have the Romans ever do for us?! | | |
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| ▲ | 2ff 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| "I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth." So youre saying they will both become the economy whilst Google, Apple et al let them? Man the idiotic statements on here are insane. Why do you fools pretend to know a subject well enough to spout such nonsense? |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > youre saying they will both become the economy They said exponential and you read unlimited. | | |
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