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whodidntante 41 minutes ago

If you do not like Elon, you can simply move your assets to a direct indexing fund, there are plenty of them at reasonable cost, including from the large brokerages.

If you believe SpaceX is overvalued or do not like the way it is being handled by the big index funds, again, use direct indexing.

akademikerpension is pretty decent fund, it is about 50/50 asset allocation, losing out by only .9% per year compare to a US equity/bond portfolio. Better than many active funds:

https://www.finanshus.dk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Pensions... https://testfol.io/?s=h8azNZvMICk

You do not like the valuation ? What should a company that launches 98% of the world's non government tonnage to space (80% if you include the Chinese government) be valued at ? The only company that has figured out how to very reliably launch at a sustained and rapid pace ? Pioneered and is perfecting rocket reuseability ? The only thing we can can say with a degree of certainty is that $2T is either very overvalued or very undervalued. If you believe that space will become a huge part of our economy in the future, and believe that SpaceX will play a significant role, $2T is cheap. Dirt cheap. The only way to prosper is to be bold.

For all those who come here to say that they do not like Elon or that the valuation is ridiculous, or that SpaceX will not succeed, that is perfectly fine - you are just a few clicks away from making it happen. Sell your assets and buy a direct indexing product, simply buy the stocks you want, buy ex-US, or any other number of options you can do on your phone with a few clicks. Less clicks than it takes to virtue signal on this forum.

ajmurmann 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

"What should a company that launches 98% of the world's non government tonnage to space (80% if you include the Chinese government) be valued at ?"

The TAM of that is under $10 billion. So even owning that entire market shouldn't get you anywhere near a trillion. Then factor in the development cost of starship which has been going on forever and still hasn't even made it to orbit.

Even the IPO filing isn't claiming the value comes from the rockets but from data centers in space which seems questionable. The real cash cow right now is Starlink but they aren't leaning into that heavily because those numbers also indicate that revenue growth might be stalling out.

If you just look at the pure numbers the case is very weak. No reason to change the inclusion rules. In fact I'd argue they never should change the inclusion rules. Let the market find a price first. Index funds are supposed to be boring and track the market. Including any recent IPO just adds chaos beyond simply tracking the overall market. It's trivial to buy some SpaceX if one wants and unlike selling your entire fund holding either doesn't trigger a taxable event at all or it's a much smaller one if you cannot avoid it.

Eridrus 18 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"Just" is doing a lot of work here.

Many people have appreciated gains locked into their indexing products such that changing is very expensive.

The biggest issue is not SpaceX/Elon per se, but indexes bending over backwards for him and changing their indexing rules to fleece index investors.

Most IPOs perform badly, to the point where the SP500 excludes all of them for a year, and I think that is actually appropriate for an indexing product. Though they're looking to change that and their float weighting for Elon.

Though after doing some digging I am not personally meaningfully impacted since Vanguard uses CRSP, which is float weighted, so only 0.1% of that is going to be SpaceX and I can live with that.

I short the stock on the actual financials if I was exposed to it (and it was actually possible), but it's a small float and there are apparently tonnes of Elon fanboys propping up Tesla beyond belief already so I expect this to be one of the hardest to predict stocks/IPOs.

wewtyflakes 35 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

That strategy would be a taxable event.