AI is overhyped. I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance. I have also yet to see dramatic increases of revenue of companies using LLMs that don't involve selling things in its supply chain. Is it a nice affordance? Sure. 1T capex good? No.

If it was so good I would expect to see 2005-2015 advancements yearly.

Meanwhile China is blowing past the world with real improvements in the real world- solar, EVs, etc. meanwhile people keep making their fancy sans serif websites about todo apps, faster than ever before. Useless.

> I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance.

I don’t disagree that AI is overhyped. But I think you are probably looking in the wrong place.

I think most software that is written isn’t really a product, at least not a public product. It’s an in-house tool or a one-off project needed to complete some larger task. People everywhere are always writing small programs that make their life or job just a bit easier (and explains why so many corporate projects are little more than an excel spreadsheet).

And there are a lot of people who have made custom software just for themselves with AI. Not a product, just a tool or project that finally made sense to build.

Productivity gains seem like it’s at best a wash when you factor in the massive tech debt cleanup and additional time needed to spec and review.