Say you join Anthropic now as an employee. What are the chances of your equity appreciating in value? I don't think we have any historical precedents to this.

Well presumably nobody investing in this current round expects anything less than a 3x

Anthropic is one of the few companies that will likely hit an infinite valuation if they succeed in their mission.

It's always a very borderline idea to hold equity in the company you work, argument being that if the company goes south or severely underperforms, you may find yourself laid off and with worthless equity.

So you're assuming lots of risk and putting it all in the same basket.

There's no shame in getting 100k $ worth of stock, selling it and putting it on some vanguard fund and diversifying, in fact it's statistically the best move you can do.

Of course, you can be like those many googlers that did this and then regret in hindsight.

inflation

I suspect we'll have our first $10T company in the next 2-3 years. That's only doubling.