How? OpenAI and Antrophic are basically the Big 2 racing away at light speed; the others who can't get near them are perhaps shaky & vulnerable. And sure, there's a garden full of those.

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cmiles8 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Because the market almost certainly can’t support two foundation model labs given the increasingly little difference across models and the massive sums of cash required to keep it all going. There is no big 2, just a race to survive and be the big 1.

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treis 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There's at least two markets here. Consumer ad driven and worker augmentation markets. Likely a 3rd as a backend infrastructure provider to a bunch of value add companies.

I think Google has caught up enough to certainly be a player in the consumer ad driven market.

I also don't think only one foundation model adds up. Now that the trail is blazed a dozen companies can likely make a good enough model. The question is if there's a moat to make it winner take all

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dchftcs 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

China will make sure they have a frontier lab, there's plenty of chance for Google to catch up once the compute crunch gets more serious.

	▲	TacticalCoder an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Google needs to catch up on what? Devs mindshare? The latest Opus 4.8 carefully selected benchmarks made sure to pick Gemini 3.1 Pro and not Gemini 3.5 Flash: 3.5 Flash is beating Opus 4.8 on several of the benchmarks Anthropic posted but simply was ignored. I don't think SOTA-wise Google has a lot of catch up to do.

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solenoid0937 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Disagree, both are coexisting fine today.

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4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

[deleted]

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claytongulick 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A series "H" for $65 billion and no path to profitability is existing fine?

	▲	conradkay 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/anthropic-says-its-about-t...
	▲	solenoid0937 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Sure, if you think there is even a small chance that OpenAI and Anthropic will get to AGI, it's practically a bargain. They don't seem too far off to me.

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an0malous 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It probably can't support any because there's no moat and smaller, open source models are catching up. This is like investing $1T into mainframe computers in 1980.

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dotcoma 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

isn't Google going to win the race anyway ?

	▲	conradkay 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		That feels really hard to argue now that Anthropic/OpenAI are so much bigger How the hell do you crush a ~1T company on the one thing they have all their focus on?

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watwut 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If it cant support two competing compamies, something is very wrong. Oligopoly is bad, monopoly worst.

Well functioning market is supposed to have many, as in a lot, companies with similar products. To create competition.

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andriy_koval 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Google likely has its market share too, you can track how fast Cloud revenue increased.

	▲	decimalenough 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		It's a gold rush and Google is both selling shovels and digging for gold itself.