Absolutely that’s why they’re rushing to IPO now to squeeze the last drop of the bubble they know this is a dead end.

swader999 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think we could run for at least a decade further with no model changes/improvements, just better harnesses and infra around this agentic way of developing.

	▲	hungryhobbit 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		We, the users? Absolutely. But will the big AI companies last even half a decade without new products? Doubtful.

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onlyrealcuzzo 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's unclear it's a dead-end within 5 years.

There's still several orders of magnitude of improvement that are almost certainly left - it's just not clear how much is left on the frontier end.

Most people will be very glad to pay Anthropic, OpenAI, Google etc $200 a month to get things done 20x faster than they could IF they had a $8000 MacBook and could theoretically do it locally.

Some people would pay $200 a month forever not to have to open the terminal one time...

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bonzini 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"Doing things X times faster" at some point hits Amdahl law. If just context switching takes 5 minutes, speeding up a 1 hour task by 10x provides 5x improvement.

Furthermore, if looking at the results takes 10 minutes, that same 1 hour task only sees a 3x improvement. And so on.

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eiej 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That’s not how firms do the financial analysis which is where most of the revenue’s are coming from…

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csomar 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Most people will be very glad to pay Anthropic, OpenAI, Google etc $200 a month to get things done 20x faster than they could IF they had a $8000 MacBook and could theoretically do it locally.

No most people will not pay $200 for an LLM subscription. Some software developers do. Also, at $200/month, you are much better getting the macbook machine assuming token output speed is the same or at least reasonable.

LLMs are not very productive for your average person now for them to drop $200 on. They'll need to be more capable and integrated and even so...

	▲	margorczynski 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		One thing to remember is that the $200/month subscription is heavily subsidized. It is more to promote use, especially to corporate users that pay for the API token use.

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lukan 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

On the other hand, I think I have been hearing that for a while, even before Opus.

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energy123 4 hours ago | parent [-]

While revenues grow almost exponentially. Reminds me of the confident predictions in the early days of Covid that it was nothing while the data showed exponential growth.

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haldujai 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I’m also reminded by the early COVID days when exponential growth was leading to predictions of the collapse of modern civilization and a billion dead, now it’s just another endemic respiratory virus.

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fragmede 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah! Just like they warned us that Y2K was gonna cause a lot of problems, and then a bunch of people did a bunch of work and then that problems didn't happen, so those people warning us about Y2k were wrong!

	▲	haldujai an hour ago \| parent [-]
		“a bunch of people” aren’t what caused the virus to become less severe. Y2K was overblown how it was portrayed by the media but is irrelevant to the analogy of unsubstantiated extrapolation of early exponential growth.