How would that work? They can't take the fabs (single door opened and dust makes it all useless) and even if they could they can't run ASML machines with their support. So... labor camp fabs on unmaintained STOA hardware from a single company everybody relies on? I can't imagine that scenario. Either they manage to redeploy the whole value chain (not saying it's impossible but doesn't seem to be the case at scale for now) or taking Taiwan by force is mostly a political show, not a technological one.

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e40 39 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Simple, they invade and TSMC blows up their factories. Or, the invasion is successful and they control the factories.

I didn't say it was likely, but one of these two outcomes is possible.

	▲	bearjaws 35 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		If China has proven one thing, they can just rebuild the factories, sure it will be 5-8 years of depression but afterwards they will control a dominate player.

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ummonk an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Wouldn't the rest of the world encourage ASML to keep supporting the fab because they want the chips to keep coming?

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utopiah an hour ago | parent [-]

Which rest of the World? ASML already has restrictions on China from Netherlands (where they are based) and the US (which provides some core IP).

	▲	ummonk an hour ago \| parent [-]
		My argument is that they would add an exception for TSMC in the event that Taiwan fell under Chinese control. The alternative would be an extreme supply shock to the industry that's responsible for most stock market and GDP growth in America.

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pepperoni_pizza an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

China is working hard on getting their own fabs. Then the have no need to keep TSMC operational.

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utopiah an hour ago | parent [-]

As I said China is indeed already working on their entire value chain. They have been doing that for a while and they have made significant progress. Still so far they don't have the precision, scale and economical competitiveness than TSMC. If they get there then it will be a totally different scenario but that's not the case for now.

	▲	Muromec 15 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		It's not a if it's when. ASML doesn't pay fuck you money to their employees just to keep China from hiring them away. Eventually ASML will get in same boat as all of the Western industries from shipbuilding and car manufacturing to everything else. It may take one year or twenty, but law if it's a matter of national security for them, eventually they will get ahead.

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throwaway85825 40 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They need regular chemical deliveries from japan as well.

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22 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[deleted]

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bigyabai an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

If TSMC were to simply disappear, it would be a great day for Samsung/Intel but a godawful catastrophe for most HPC applications and consumer hardware. People aren't afraid of a fab takeover, they're afraid of TSMC disappearing altogether.

	▲	utopiah an hour ago \| parent [-]
		It's the point of my question, I don't see how TSMC could not disappear if Taiwan becomes part of China.