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mattas 2 hours ago

What's an example of an indicator? Genuinely curious!

simonw 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Insider tips from Google and AWS telling me that they run inference at a profit (though that was over a year ago now).

Dario telling Dwarkesh three months ago that they have a margin on inference: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2?timestamp=3528.0

infinitezest an hour ago | parent [-]

Are these sources not incentivized to say exactly this, regardless of whether it's true?

simonw an hour ago | parent [-]

The insiders tips? I don't think so, they were people I trust.

They had all the incentive in the world to say "I'm not going to talk about that."