With deepseek and xiaomi mimo models slashing their prices 99%, I don't see a great future for openai / antrhopic with regards to their 1T valuations. Maybe 1T valuation will be the whole market, West + East.

Most of the corporate world in the EU or North America will be hesitant to rely on Chinese AI providers. There are some very real blockers for that for things like data security, compliance, etc. And recent geopolitics don't help.

Legalities aside, you need to look not at the model quality but at the infrastructure needed to scale these models from tens (now) to hundreds (soon) of millions of users. Only a handful of companies actually have the resources and funding to do that. That's what these huge valuations are based on. These companies are gearing up to scale to these levels. That's why they are spending on data centers. Whoever has access to those data centers gets to tap into the revenue stream of people using models running on those.

The market for frontier models is roughly split between OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. And then you have companies like X/SpaceX, Amazon, and Microsoft being more successful with their infrastructure than their AI products and companies like Apple, Meta that have the money and the aspiration but are so far not really managing to be very successful with their AI strategies.

Deepseek is just very poorly positioned to capture a lot of the enterprise revenue in the EU or North America. But they might become very dominant outside the US/EU. And of course China itself is going to be a huge market and equally unlikely to want to be depending on US owner AI companies.

They'll still have their dedicated enterprise customers. I think the Chinese providers will pull more of the single users who're paying their own way, than those backed by company budget. And it's a pretty good split as the demand becomes better distributed, resulting in better service (I'll never forgot must how bad access to Claude became until they got access to Colossus) and less potential for lock-in (we really don't want there to be a duopoly, etc on good AI).