I would argue that it's really only toy projects that can continue in an Internet outage. "Serious shops" will be using cloud based version control, cloud based testing workflows, and most likely cloud based distribution of the software. isn't it only the little side projects you can get away with not needing the Internet for? Software long ago stopped being something one person on a computer did, today the professional SDLC includes many tools that are hosted.

Do farmers still plough fields with a Horse just in case their tractor runs out of diesel? Of course not, as technology moves on we all have to accept the inherent risks in exchange for the huge benefits, otherwise the work you do will be too slow and your job taken by someone willing to leverage the tools available today.

agree and also not sure if they are saying claude the app/ide or claude the model

Which nobody is doing, especially not people who vibe code products. Saying "just prepare for it" as an answer to "what do you do if", is not really enough when that "prepare for it" is very expensive (time, tokens, effort etc.).

For someone to do this, they would have to think for themselves, which I've also not seen much of in the vibe-coding space.

Or you point your Claude code at a different LLM provider. It's not complicated and there are lots of vendors (and in the open-weights space multiple vendors serving the same models competing on price). Sure DeepSeek 4 isn't quite Opus at the moment. But it's plenty good to do the work. We've got different competing front-end tools and different competing back-end providers. No one 'owns' your company. Maybe that will change as the market evolves and one of the frontier tools become so much better than one vendor will own the market. But that's not where we are now.

In such a scenario, are you assuming Anthropic has a monopoly? Or are all LLM providers callusing on prices?

For substandard developers, yes, work stops.

I have seen many many times in microcontroller forums posts from first timers in the liking of "hello sirs i have problem please show how to do this", followed by their own reply a few hours later asking again because they were holding up, where "this" was usually something really trivial, you just needed to read the docs and the rightful answer was "did you really not try anything in 6 hours?"

Or simple economics kicks in, price/demand all that.

If hand coding pays better there will be plenty who can still do that.

Username checks out.

(sorry couldn't resist)

I more meant feature-level differences. For instance, Claude Code has agent teams, and Codex CLI does not. Or for a while, Codex had "/goal" and Claude Code did not (though now Claude Code has it too). To your point, it is usually possible to polyfill these gaps either with custom code/skills/hooks or with third party plugins.

You can use a local model, which will go down exactly as often as gcc will. We may still have hopeful notions of being able to understand the codebase, but the reality seems to be that the codebases we don't understand will be the ones that will win out in the market, because they'll be cheaper while still only having about as many bugs as they had when people wrote them.

What can I say, we can't all be geniuses.