right now the most likely outcome is that they are going to host locally produced much more power hungry chips, and even if the lead on electricity production will stay, it will be eaten by inefficiency of the hardware.

Unlikely. We have a big lead in terms of general computing devices, but China can leapfrog us with ASICs. They might still lag in the training space for a while but in terms of serving inference, USA is absolutely COOKED at the low-mid end.