An independent Alberta would face the Dutch disease effect crashing the employment figures, wages and viability of everything except oil and gas. At least a 10% jump in unemployment in two years.

51st state with the USD absorbing the excess productivity however? It comes down to the negotiations. Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibit other independence movements), which is what motivates the Albertan independence movement. Any Albertans would hope the US to be more egalitarian.

However, the US might put them over a barrel and make similar revenue flows a condition of joining, which would be the smart play for Washington (possibly with some tariff and travel restrictions sticks if they don't). If the 47 admin is bankrolling the content farms producing this independence movement (as Orban was the Daily Wire) then the US has all upsides.

Canada fractured and easier to loot and Alberta entirely undefended from looting. Somehow, I expect that the only Canadians recognising this attack surface are a few bureaucrats too low down in Ottawa to get their voices out and that the parties will just try to fight the anti-independence tactics in the culture war moralising style of the now-departed Freeland, which is a decade out of date and powerless to sway the Albertans.

Generalising away from just Canada, one of the great weaknesses of liberal parties worldwide is electoralism. They cannot look at the electorate they have over their desire for the electorate they'd prefer they had. To paraphrase PG, if you don't ditch people who prefer being right to winning you'll deserve the outcome they produce for you.

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alistairSH 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Right now, huge Albertan budget surpluses get sent to Ottawa to be spent outside of Alberta (largely as a carrot to inhibit other independence movements), which is what motivates the Albertan independence movement. Any Albertans would hope the US to be more egalitarian.

Is Alberta taxed at a higher rate than other provinces? Nothing in the top few hits on Google indicates this to be the case.

And I'm not sure how the US would be different - all states pay the same federal income tax rates, whether that's individual or business income.

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OgsyedIE 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Federal income taxes are the same in all Canadian provinces except for Quebec (as part of the abatement settlement), but Alberta and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan are large net contributors, since the higher-earning median Albertan is more affected by Canadian federal marginal tax rates. It's an exact analogue of Californian tax revenue paying for Mississippi. (If you'd like some keywords for searching, the popular term is Alberta equalization)

Under the current equalization system, Alberta last received a single Canadian dollar of direct spending in the 1964/65 fiscal year, whilst four other provinces have received over $1B annually since 2014 (Quebec, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia).

It sounds like I'm selling Albertan independence, but the fact that Ottawa aims for progressive internal redistribution is the exact same thing the US already has, as you point out. Similar figures of only receiving indirect federal returns can be stated for American net contributor states, too. It's the price of being in a large country, where in exchange you have a pooled currency and military that reduce vulnerabilities to external attackers.

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slopinthebag 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They're called "Equalisation payments". Certain provinces pay them, like BC, Alberta, and Ontario, and then other provinces receive them.

In 2023, the federal government spent $24.0 billion including an estimated $3.3 billion from Alberta, which has not received equalization payments since 1964/65. From 2007 to 2022, Albertans’ net contribution to federal finances was $244.6 billion, more than five times the net contribution from British Columbia or Ontario, the only other two net contributors.

Albertans’ also disproportionately contribute to the CPP. From 1981 to 2022, the amount Albertans paid into the program, over and above what retirees in Alberta received in CPP payments, was $53.6 billion, approximately six times greater than the net contribution of B.C., the only other net contributing province.

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alistairSH 2 hours ago | parent [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments

This indicates Alberta (and Ontario and BC) don't pay higher tax rates. The equalization payments just come out of the general budget.

The US isn't all that much different. Wealthy states pay more per capita because it's an income tax, not a per capita tax. Looks like ~13 states pay more than they get back, with Massachusetts paying relatively more (-$5000/person) and New Mexico recieving relatively more (+$15,000/person).

	▲	slopinthebag 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Afaik it's not higher tax rates, in fact income taxes in Alberta are lower than other provinces. But OP was referring to equalisation payments, which are considered unfair by many Albertans.