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dude250711 an hour ago

Trying to justify current valuations by misrepresenting current model capabilities is a scam.

A fair valuation of ~$5B each for Anthropic and OpenAI for the occasionally useful tools that they had created would be more reasonable.

heipei an hour ago | parent | next [-]

$5B valuation on a $30B run rate for Anthropic?

reenorap an hour ago | parent | next [-]

40B ARR and profitable next month.

bigfishrunning 33 minutes ago | parent [-]

It's always profitable next month.

an hour ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
avarun an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Lol. What exactly have you based this "fair valuation" off of? Vibes?

varjag an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Come on. LinkedIn was bought for 6B.

trotro an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI, yet you think they should have the same valuation as Crocs (yes, the footwear company) ?

root_axis an hour ago | parent | next [-]

> These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI

This type of rhetoric is exactly why people think it's a scam

grey-area an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It’s nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either.

They do seem to be good at fooling people though.

ekianjo 44 minutes ago | parent [-]

> nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either.

Nevermind what they can do was pure science fiction just 3 years ago?

vardalab 15 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Exactly. Here I am sitting talking to my freaking computer, arguing with it, whatnot. And people just dismiss it as if it's not a science fiction. We were not there two, three years ago. Now we are. It's amazing and scary, scary mostly because the society that we operate in. I bet it's less scary in Norway or elsewhere where govt is more biased towards people not corps.

bigfishrunning 31 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What they can do was not science fiction, these things are all based on papers that were written decades ago, with the caveat that there's simply not enough compute power. Now there is. That's what changed. Everything on top of that is an incremental improvement.

It doesn't change the fact that LLMs are not, and never will be, AGI.

amake 39 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Are you claiming they have AGI or are "close" to it?

SpicyLemonZest 30 minutes ago | parent [-]

Yes. I think cutting-edge LLM products obviously have what nearly anyone in 2020 would have called "artificial general intelligence".

The shape of the intelligence frontier has turned out to be much more jagged than anyone at the time expected, so I can imagine reasonable objections from someone who has a specific, concrete benchmark of AGI that wasn't invented 6 months ago and isn't yet met. If someone just has a subjective sense that they're not smart enough, I think they're wrong.

ru552 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Regardless of the marketing material, LLMs are still just using probabilities to guess what the next token is.

anuramat 41 minutes ago | parent [-]

you think it should be deterministic?

bigfishrunning 30 minutes ago | parent [-]

If LLMs were configured to be deterministic, instead of the current "small amount of randomness to provide the illusion of a thinking machine", they would be much more useful in exchange for being less exciting to laypeople.

In other words, scam.

anuramat 26 minutes ago | parent [-]

you know you can set the temperature to zero and get exactly that, right?

23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
monocasa an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI

That is the point under contention.

trollbridge an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

... where can I get a subscription to this AGI?