> How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat?

For a looooonnnnngggg time, unless there's massive progress in AI research.

Fundamentally, next token prediction is limited. Granted, I'm pretty amazed at how well it's done, but if you can't activate the right parts of the models (with your prompts), then you're not going to get good results.

And to be fair, for lots of things this doesn't matter. Steve in Finance or Mindy in Marketing can create dashboards that actually help them, and the code quality mostly doesn't matter.

For stuff that needs to be shipped, monitored and maintained you still need to know what you're doing.