I see two points:

1. AIs aren't yet good at architecture.

2. AIs aren't yet good at imagining technically exciting stuff to build.

And I agree that there's still space there to build a career in the short to medium term (plus Jevons Paradox). When both those points are no longer true we are certainly much closer to, dear I say it, agi. I suspect that (1) will be solved for somewhat limited domains in the near future using harnesses. And it could snowball from there.

▲

zaphar an hour ago | parent [-]

Nearly every argument that hinges on the word "yet" is just an example of over-extrapolation[0] at play.

0: https://www.fallacyfiles.org/overxtra.html

	▲	iwiwk a few seconds ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Moreover we haven’t seen all the effects of today’s tech to understand the net benefits. E.g ‘productivity’ is seemingly increasing but what is the effect on a firms financial position? It’s all speculative and experimental right now.
	▲	muldvarp 15 minutes ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		But saying "LLMs are not good at architecture so software engineering has a bright future" is _also_ extrapolation.
	▲	worldsayshi an hour ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		You're probably on point there.