I think my read of it would be something like extreme short term thinking, and essentially like a push your luck game. If we can make it to the next model, maybe we can get enough productivity to reverse course.

As I understand it there are some underlying problems in the industry. Companies aren’t exiting which means VC’s aren’t getting returns and investment is slowing. In order for NVIDIA to maintain its current valuation, it has to keep growing at the rate it’s been growing which is the time during which companies have been piling on debt to perform extreme investments in AI. On top of this the growth rate is also based on extreme circular dealing.

So the whole thing isn’t sustainable, but the crash doesn’t happen until some big player blinks and their forecast / valuation goes down. And the only path to the kind of growth / gains people saw during the peak of the internet era is through AI.

Probably none of these big companies will fail, but it will be deeply uncomfortable for all of them when the music stops. And I wonder if it bankrupts a swath of the current generation of VCs.