| ▲ | Retr0id 2 hours ago | ||||||||||||||||||||||
"predicting the future" and "correct analysis of all available information" often aren't all that different. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | glitchc an hour ago | parent | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
A sufficiently large market is indistinguishable from Brownian motion. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | AnimalMuppet an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
From Schlock Mercenary (quoted from memory, may be inexact): "You cannot see the future. All we are given is the present." "Of course. But if you look closely at the present, you can find loose bits of the future just laying around." | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | dheera an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Not really. Not all players in prediction markets are rational players. A good chunk of it are there for entertainment, and analyze things incorrectly; you can take the other side of those trades, and you won't need to predict the future. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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