| ▲ | OpenAI to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday(cnbc.com) |
| 100 points by doppp 4 hours ago | 39 comments |
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| ▲ | sandeepkd 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario? |
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| ▲ | HDBaseT an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I can't wait to invest an OpenAI and lose all my retirement fund. |
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| ▲ | amusingimpala75 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| How does a company even consider this while the CFO is privately saying the books / revenue accounting are not ready for public scrutiny? Edit:
Or has so much somehow changed in two weeks that it’s no longer necessary to wait until next year? |
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| ▲ | lumost 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | These companies are burning enough cash that they will need to be public. We’re about to have 3 of the worlds’s largest corporations be massively in the red. | |
| ▲ | wg0 33 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Current administration might rig the rules to take the credit of AI boom. Even third world doesn't have this much shameless and corrupt regime as much as this one is. | |
| ▲ | hattmall an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I believe, but could be wrong, is that the big change is the time frame for index and managed funds buy in. It used to be a year, but it's much shorter now, like 2 weeks. Which means as long as they can maintain a high market cap relative to their exchange for that time period they will be stabilized by institutional funds and basically crowd sourcing any losses to the public and massively cashing out the internal pre-ipo investors. At least that's my understanding of the current market dynamics regarding IPOS, if I'm wrong that would be great, and if someone else would explain it even better. | |
| ▲ | mrtksn 5 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Can't they just tell GPT-5.5 to fix their books, make no mistakes? Are the accountants also not replaceable by AI when doctors, lawyers and engineers are? | |
| ▲ | eldenring an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I'm guessing they had a significant revenue spike from gpt 5.4 and gpt 5.5 being so good at coding, and hiccups at anthropic making it easier for programmers to try the models. | |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The CFO doesn't even report to Sam Altman directly. I would not assume that the decision is up to her in any meaningful way. I predicted a while ago and still stand by an 80% chance that their S1 is disastrous on the scale of WeWork; so, so much of what people think they know about OpenAI's finances is based on snippets and rumors rather than firm audited statements. | |
| ▲ | bayarearefugee 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > How does a company even consider this while the CFO is privately saying the books / revenue accounting are not ready for public scrutiny? Perhaps they will just tell a lot of lies. In the past people would generally avoid this when it came to stock market filings for fear of legal consequences, but the OpenAI C-Suite is already at least +$26 million to Trump and has plenty more to send his way if that doesn't cover it. Crime is legal in 2026 (if you can afford the kickback fees). |
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| ▲ | avaer 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| A race to lock in the money next to SpaceX (which just filed an S-1)? This can't go well. |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48210226 |
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| ▲ | henry2023 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Soon to be part of your portfolio if you hold Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 trackers line QQQ or SPY. |
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| ▲ | seydor an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | What will managed funds do? Are we now suggesting people get out of index funds? Worse, will this and spacex ipo destroy the index funds? | | |
| ▲ | karmakurtisaani 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Destroy is a strong word. Rather, it will make the pension funds and passive investors the bag holders for the oligarchs. |
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| ▲ | derwiki an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Upside of robo advisors? | |
| ▲ | coliveira an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | ETFs are a trap. Put most of your money in single stocks. It is ok to diversify, you don't need an ETF for this. | | |
| ▲ | pixelatedindex 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > It is ok to diversify Nay, it is not just “ok”. It is imperative that you diversify if you want a strong and resilient portfolio. | |
| ▲ | sentientslug an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is terrible advice, are you buying and self balancing hundreds of different stocks? |
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| ▲ | techtuate 37 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best.
There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue valuation despite heavy losses. I feel it's safer to take a punt on alternate compute companies (Musk leads but others exist) than take a bet on one of many AI companies to build a monopoly. |
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| ▲ | psb5 13 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | All that is a side show. What would you have done with the cash if you were right? Thats always the real story. My Aunt runs an accounting firm and is constantly moaning about the number of people who have over accumulated cash from IPOs and have no clue what to do with it all. | |
| ▲ | Cyclone_ 32 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Anthropic actually turned an operating profit recently due to huge revenue growth. | | |
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| ▲ | vasco 7 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'd be willing to make this a ban-bet, but my prediction is that either OpenAI or SpaceX's IPO will flop and that will be the signal that will start the new stock market crash. When it happens people will point at how obvious it was with the war and the bubble going for a while. But these 2 mega IPOs back to back will be interesting to follow. |
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| ▲ | noobermin an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Trying to get your money out while there's still time! Quickly now! |
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| ▲ | bandrami an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Cool does this mean they'll disclose their revenues and expenses in line with GAAP? |
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| ▲ | sharts 18 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Now everyone is on the hook for this overpriced unprofitable monstrosity vis a vis pension and index funds. How much longer for the coming economic collapse… |
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| ▲ | karmakurtisaani 15 minutes ago | parent [-] | | It should still take a year until it's added to the indices, no? At least that's how I understood the SpaceX case: Elon wanted to rush it and get it done in 6 months. So there's still hope that the bubble pops before the funds are poisoned. |
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| ▲ | ChrisArchitect 32 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48210226 |
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| ▲ | throwawaygmbno 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| What is the advice from the internet? Did you invest in Tesla and now invest in Open AI because who cares about ethics if you can make money? Anthropic has the obviously the better product and were seemingly ethically better until they burnt their developer goodwill and started accepting Musk infrastructure. But does having a better product actually translate to making more money? Should I just lay down and die because there's no good choice when it comes to investing in this product they market as killing off people's livelihoods? |
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| ▲ | tehlike 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You can sit this one out. There are many other opportunities to make money in the market. Ai build out is currently in play, and many names are rising accordinglym | | |
| ▲ | nradov 40 minutes ago | parent [-] | | If you're invested in any index funds or most mutual funds (including through your retirement account) then you can't really sit this one out. We're all going along for the ride, hold on tight. |
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| ▲ | DeathArrow an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | >Anthropic has the obviously the better product According to what metrics does Anthropic have the better product? | | |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest an hour ago | parent [-] | | Reported number of business users, although as with all these metrics I feel obligated to emphasize the caveat that most analysis of the AI labs' finances is speculative. OpenAI remains dominant in the consumer chatbot space, but that's so obviously going to be commoditized that I don't think it matters. | | |
| ▲ | phil21 40 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Since the source code leak of Claud Code, is there an actual believable moat whatsoever any longer? I’m not nearly an expert at any level, but it seems to me the models themselves are converging on “good enough” for coding, with the real differentiator being the harness and tooling. From a bystander and casual user perspective it all seems running as fast as it can to commoditization to me. I’m certainly the dumb money here so won’t be investing short or long for any of these. But I do find it interesting! | | |
| ▲ | bjt 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | The Claude Code client source was never their moat. There are plenty of other companies with equivalent tools (gemini cli, cursor cli, augment, codex, etc.) The models that it talks to are far more important. Not to say you're wrong about commoditization. I don't think these companies will be able to raise their prices and keep them there to make enough money to keep building models like they've been doing. |
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