| ▲ | mactavish88 6 hours ago |
| The absolute last thing I want in the filing of my taxes is non-determinism. |
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| ▲ | kstrauser 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Boy, do I have bad news for you. Edit: To be clear, as a sibling post said, the basic arithmetic is easy enough. It's the tax opinion stuff that is absolutely not deterministic. If your situation is even moderately complex, there's a vast number of ways to describe your deductions, each with different tax implications and multi-year requirements. I'm not talking about being Jeff Bezos, either. Is your spouse an independent contractor? Do you own a home? Do you have stock options? Do you have a home office? These alone are enough to make some pretty creative reporting situations. |
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| ▲ | crowcroft 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think it's a very common misconception among programmers that the law is a sort of natural language 'program' where you can consistently deduce that x input generate y output. | | |
| ▲ | jorisw 20 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | A point echoed by Nilay Patel (who used to be a law professional) here https://www.theverge.com/podcast/917029/software-brain-ai-ba... | |
| ▲ | kstrauser 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It sort of is, except that the entire law isn't defined in one place. "Hey, do I have a home office?" Well, "home" is defined over in this regulation, and "home office" is defined over there in that other regulation, and "having a home office" would normally mean this except for this case law that says it can also mean that when these other circumstances apply, and... These things are knowable, but unless you've spent some time studying it intensely, it's certain that you only know a fraction of the places where the program is written. If it's helpful, programmers should imagine that it's written in C. At a glance you can tell what something's doing, but once you study it you can find UB all over the place and suddenly it's hard to say what the right answer is until you know the intricacies of the compiler and the target platform. You can't really determine the exact behavior without all that information that lives outside the code. Now, once you have all that, you can surely reason through it all. But how many people actually know all that, or even realize which parts they don't know? "This is pretty straightforward" is a sure sign of someone who doesn't actually understand it well. | | |
| ▲ | jcranmer 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Trying to treat law as code-in-English-form is going to lead you horribly astray, however. The behavior of C code is something that we can, in principle, reduce to semantics in a formal model we know how to describe the behavior of. Now, there's some issues getting there--the specification is more ambiguous than we'd like, and there's definitely certain behaviors that are very challenging to incorporate in a formal model (say, signal handlers). But even something like UB is something that we have good, well-understand models of what exactly it means to hit UB. At the end of the day, whether or not C code is correct, whether or not the compiler is correctly compiling the C code, is a question that has a clearly objective answer. Law doesn't work like that. Laws are written and interpreted with the understanding that there is flexibility in the mater. If you compute the law and get an absurd result, then people are going to shrug and throw out the absurd result; rather different it is to a compiler where the absurdity is accepted as correct. As a result, there's not really an objective answer to whether or not something is legal, to understanding what will happen in a legal case, like there is to code. | |
| ▲ | wahern 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > [US] tax law drafting style follows default logic, a non-monotonic logic that is hard to encode in languages with first-order logic (FOL). https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.07966.pdf Most law generally is non-monotonic. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-monotonic_logic) The French tax code is one of the few exceptions. | |
| ▲ | nerdsniper 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > except that the entire law isn't defined in one place > These things are knowable There are absolutely undefined, unknowable areas of law that are waiting on future SCOTUS decisions to be defined. Heck, we can’t even rely on past SCOTUS decisions. Even in extremely well-defined law like whether LEO’s have valid PC to search someone during a traffic stop, two different judges in the same district will disagree and appeals courts / state supreme courts can rule quite inconsistently. That’s by definition not just undefined behavior but also non-deterministic results. | | |
| ▲ | kstrauser 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | I agree. I just mean, you can pretty well know today's state, at least hypothetically. But you better be watching tomorrow's legal news to see if anything important changed. | | |
| ▲ | dchftcs 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Someone has to be in the news first, and then you learn about it. To that someone, the change you see in tomorrow's legal news is today, was yesterday. It's more a gamble than you think, you just don't feel it until it bites you. | | |
| ▲ | kstrauser 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | FWIW, we're in complete agreement. I stand by mt original statement that these things are nearly impossible for a layperson to be competent in. It's hard enough for people who do it every day for a living. An equivalent would be non-techies saying "I'm not going to pay a software engineer. Just tell the computer what you want it to do!" And that might sound reasonable to other non-techies, while you and I roll our eyes and laugh. I'm sure CPAs and tax attorneys and the like think the same when they hear engineers talk about filing their own non-trivial taxes. |
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| ▲ | 34 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | mk12 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | And there are basic things that shouldn’t be subjective at all but that the IRS refuses to give a clear answer to, like if/how the SALT cap affects deduction for NIIT. There are at least 3 possible interpretations and no consensus. | | |
| ▲ | jmalicki 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's because it's law, and the IRS doesn't get to decide that, courts do. There are parts of the tax code that mean different things in different parts of the US because of conflicting circuit court decisions that haven't made it to the Supreme Court. |
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| ▲ | BobbyTables2 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I know my own taxes pretty well. I don’t follow the tax code changes but could fill out a 1040 form on my own. Even did for a short time. I use tax prep software because I do NOT want to worry whether I copied the amount from line C to line K correctly. The IRS forms are a nightmare! The postscript in PDF should allow something more sane than what we have today in IRS forms, but that’s just wishful thinking. | | |
| ▲ | kstrauser 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I use to think that. I'm capable of putting numbers in a form correctly. A good tax preparer can point out things like "did you know that your specific commuting pattern entitles you to claim mileage?", or "the law says the way you have your working environment set up at home means you can deduct some of your utility bills", and so on ad infinitum. Basically, unless you get someone who has a deep knowledge of the law, if your tax situation is non-trivial (see my post above this) then you might be leaving money on the table. It's a terrible, idea to evade taxes. It's a fantastic idea to realize when you're paying more than you're legally required to so that you can fix it. | |
| ▲ | LamaOfRuin 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The IRS's fillable forms do a perfectly fine job of copying values around and doing the basic arithmetic that they can automate. | |
| ▲ | Loudergood 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | No, that's Intuit lobbying. | | |
| ▲ | groundzeros2015 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Taxes are not objective. No software can reach into your life and classify your activies into legal categories. |
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| ▲ | groundzeros2015 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That’s a true side fact, but that has nothing to do with how the software behaves once you input your answers. | |
| ▲ | gamblor956 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is your spouse an independent contractor? Do you own a home? Do you have stock options? Do you have a home office? These alone are enough to make some pretty creative reporting situations. Those questions all have discrete answers, including the much-misunderstood home office. The correct tax outcomes are very much deterministic, in the sense that the same inputs always result in the same outputs. It's simply that there are a lot of options to change the inputs (for example, choosing FIFO vs LIFO for stock sales, using an S-corp vs a sole proprietorship for a personal business). For example, the home office deduction is only available to individuals who have a home office that is used exclusively for their individual business, not as an employee for someone else's business (the only exception being for flow-through entities where the taxpayer is a shareholder/partner). The "exclusive use" is meant in the all-or-nothing sense. Use your office computer after hours for games? The home office deduction no longer applies. Uses the office space to store personal documents, or really any other activity except for the business activity? The HOD no longer applies. Don't have any income from that business activity you claim are doing in the home office? The HOD no longer applies. It's simply that enforcement is not deterministic, so people think they get away with a lot of positions that do not survive actual audits. Talk to an IRS agent that handles audits and you'll learn that a failed home office deduction claim is the #2 adjustment to the tax returns of white collar professionals.[1] At a relatively recent tax mixer, IRS agents from the Los Angeles branch office could only recall about a dozen cases in which the home office deduction actually survived an audit, out of thousands, and those taxpayers were extremely rigorous about following the rules to the letter (to the extent that all of them locked their home offices when they were not being used for work). [1] The #1 reason for adjustments to the tax returns of white collar professionals is attempting to claim business expense deductions without matching business income to deduct against. Technically, the home office deduction is one of these deductions, which is why it is #2 and not #1. | | |
| ▲ | s1artibartfast an hour ago | parent [-] | | There are also a lot of non-deterministinc choices one can make. Things like carry forward losses or gains, that no algorithm could know. They depend on your personal plans for the future. You can make specific filing choices that have massive consequences on your future. There are choices like 83(b) elections that can save you tens of millions of dollars a decade in the future, contingent on the events after you file. |
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| ▲ | jcranmer 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Ultimately, taxes is just filling out a spreadsheet and doing basic math... but the hard part of taxes is understanding how to fill out that spreadsheet correctly. Doing that requires answering several questions that many tax filers may simply not have the background to understand--I'm always struck whenever answering the question about "do you need to correct your W-2?" is how would I know when the answer is "yes." I can see how AI could be helpful here... at least were not AI plagued with hallucinations. That said, Intuit's actual business model is convincing millions of people that their taxes are so complicated they need to spend $60 on a program that is just copy-pasting numbers from one document to another. |
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| ▲ | nunez 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | tbf doing taxes is way more than copy from W2; paste into 1040. There are tax credits. Tax incentives. 1099 income (which a lot of people receive!). Loopholes. So many loopholes. As far as I understand it, a lot of this guidance can be/has been automated programmatically. I can see how LLMs can become useful for niche scenarios if you feed it *a LOT* of data as they become more accurate. | | |
| ▲ | gamblor956 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | There are actually very few "loopholes" available to individuals. What most accountants call "loopholes" are actually just misunderstandings of the tax rules (e.g., the home office deduction, home business expense deductions, hiring family members being some of the biggest), and their clients usually end up paying penalties the IRS if they get audited. |
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| ▲ | bombcar 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You would correct your W2 when the amount you receive wasn't what was reported - this is exceptionally rare. | |
| ▲ | jimbob45 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Nah, Free Fillable Forms paired with ChatGPT (free, not even plus) is adequate for the vast majority of the tax population now and none of it is hard. I expect that 2027 is the last year for the tax preparation software companies to still exist. | | |
| ▲ | Loughla 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | There have been free alternatives for years. People still pay accountants to do their very basic taxes and pay $200 for twenty minutes worth of work. Why? For the same reason paid software exists in this space - knowing you have someone else to blame. |
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| ▲ | VariousPrograms 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I asked an LLM (Gemini) about a calculated field in my taxes that was wrong but I couldn’t figure out why and every time it tried to tell me something like “It’s a common glitch for tax software to calculate like this.” When I did figure out what was wrong and asked if that made sense, it told me I was absolutely right though. I think people are lucky the IRS fired all their employees this day and age so this work isn’t getting checked as much. |
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| ▲ | kevin_thibedeau 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | You're being deprived of government services and a sustainable economy because the wealthy are allowed to game the system they've rigged for themselves. I wouldn't call that luck. |
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| ▲ | jandrewrogers 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This. An important property of tax calculations is being consistently reproducible. In the context of an audit, the calculations don’t need to be accurate per se just precise. I have a formative story where a large industrial company was counting things for tax purposes using my software. Given the same data and same binary, the count was off by one depending on if it was running on Intel or AMD CPUs. They didn’t care so much what the count was, they just needed it to be the same value at all times in all places so they could defend it in an audit. The inability to consistently reproduce the value was a bigger liability for tax purposes than small variances in accuracy that fell out of the process. |
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| ▲ | thrwaway55 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Why? What's wrong with some non determism if Intuit foots any mistakes? I am all for AI auto filling taxes where the filer offering takes the burden. |
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| ▲ | hsuduebc2 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | To be honest I'm kinda sceptical that they will be paying fines for you. | | |
| ▲ | skirmish 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Software licenses usually explicitly disclaim all financial damages. I assume Intuit does too (I don't use Turbotax myself). | | |
| ▲ | ryandrake 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If an LLM hallucinates your income or deductions, the IRS is not going to go after the LLM, it's going to go after the taxpayer. I can't believe what I'm seeing in some of these replies. Making a mistake on your taxes is at best, a stressful letter from the IRS, and at worse, prison time. Place your trust appropriately. | |
| ▲ | cyberax 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Intuit actually will indemnify any penalties in case of filing errors on their part. |
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| ▲ | xwowsersx 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Intuit has a pretty broad financial software portfolio, not just a tax company. Also, yes the actual arithmetic at the end should be handled by deterministic code. I doubt anyone, including Intuit, thinks otherwise. But there's a ton of uses for LLMs before you get to 2+2 = 4, explaining concepts, document extraction, understanding the full financial picture, etc. Kind of feels like you're criticizing a cartoonish idea of AI's place in their products. |
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| ▲ | skirmish 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | You would think arithmetic should be deterministic, but just days ago I received paper mail from IRS saying my tax software computed federal tax underpayment penalty incorrectly, and they are refunding me > $300. |
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