To all AI skeptics:

What is preventing AI from continuing to improve until it is absolutely better than humans at any mental task?

If we compare AI now vs 2022 the difference is outstandingly stark. Do you believe this improvement will just stop before it eclipses all humans in everything we care about?

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davebren 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> What is preventing AI from continuing to improve until it is absolutely better than humans at any mental task?

No matter how much compute time it's given to combine training samples with each other and run through a validation engine it will still be missing some chunk of the "long tail". To make progress in the long tail it would need to have understanding, and not just a mimicry of understanding. Unless that happens they will always be dependent on the humans that they are mimicking in order to improve.

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atleastoptimal 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

What is the difference between what LLM's do and "true" understanding?

I feel like people grasping straws on the shrinking limitations of AI systems are just copying the "god of the gaps" fallacy

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davebren 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> What is the difference between what LLM's do and "true" understanding?

The thing where you can understand the meaning of this sentence without first compiling a statistical representation of a 10 trillion line corpus of training data.

Unless you're an NPC of course.

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smashers1114 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I mean brains get a lot of training data too in order to understand language. I don't think you provided a relevant difference.

Or rather, maybe I don't understand what you mean :)

	▲	davebren 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		When you think about the word apple and what it signifies, what do you experience? Is there a feeling of "appleness"? Do you think that sense of meaning is equivalent to the numerical weights of an LLM?

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2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[deleted]

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enoint 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That’s one possibility. If it fails to convince a critical mass that it’s a net improvement in their lives, then the impediment to continual improvement will be sabotage.

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KalMann 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think there's been natural but steady progress with since 2024 with the release of the o1 model, which showed impressive reasoning capabilities. But I think it's wrong to look at the magnitude of the accomplishments and assume that will be field independent. We don't know the range of problems reasoning techniques are useful for. What we see here is refinement of capabilities that have been noticeable for years.

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layer8 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> everything we care about

One qualitative distinction that remains for the time being is that humans care about things while AIs do not. Human drive and motivation is needed to have AI perform tasks.

Of course, this distinction isn’t set in stone.

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rzmmm 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Maybe after decades. 2022 models were microscopic compared to latest models.

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gowld an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It depends on if AI can invent cold fusion before running our of all the energy on Earth.

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xandrius 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You should really look up a video about what GPTs fundamentally are.

	▲	Rover222 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You should also really look up a video about what neural synapses really are.