| ▲ | Aboutplants 20 hours ago |
| The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag? |
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| ▲ | davey48016 20 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket. EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends... |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| I think one of them is not like the other. I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX. |
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| ▲ | RandallBrown 19 hours ago | parent [-] | | Isn't SpaceX the only one of those that actually makes money? | | |
| ▲ | aurareturn 19 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Personally, I don't worry about profitability in the short term. If Anthropic is adding $15b ARR every single month, and their gross margins are 50%+ (per Dario), profits are inevitable. The thing I'm most worried about with SpaceX is bundling X.com, xAI with it. I don't want to invest in X.com nor xAI. Lastly, I don't my money tied to the Elon rollercoaster. | | |
| ▲ | dminik 29 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | How are the margins 50%+? There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no? These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart... | |
| ▲ | mrweasel 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I understand very little of this, but hasn't OpenAI burned so much money, which it now need to be recouped, making any profit short or long term is mostly a fantasy. If OpenAI IPOs, then investors will expect a return. OpenAI can't generate that, so they'll be forced to slash R&D, stop datacenter roll outs and layoffs, so what's left? A model that will grow stale in six month, massive commitments and debt? | |
| ▲ | tedd4u 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Can't wait to see where they stick the cost frontier model updates in the P&L. Maybe some kind of NRE they can amortize so it's outside of EBITDA? |
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| ▲ | sethops1 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | SpaceX is a money furnace. Read the S-1 that came out yesterday. | |
| ▲ | guelo 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | seems unlikely as it owns twitter and grok, both being giant money sinks |
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