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kube-system 6 hours ago

No, a stock is a share of ownership in a company.

Now yes, people bet on the derivative value of those ownership shares... but that also happens to basically every asset. If a stock is a prediction market, then so is corn, and gold, and your home.

michaelscott 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, they are. Accurate prediction is rewarded in every market, for every asset or asset class. There are adjacent order benefits (I live in my home, I eat corn, I have a say in how a company is run) but these are never divorced from the impact of prediction and prediction in aggregate is just a crowdsourced leading indicator of value; oil spikes the moment a missile hits Iran not because the 2 are explicitly linked, but because the market has predicted the effect on the flow of that oil over some subsequent timeframe and priced itself accordingly

kube-system 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, but all of these things have underlying assets that are not themselves predictions. You can buy and sell corn commodities, but at the end of the contract, actual corn is delivered. Predictions markets are different in that they betting on the prediction itself and have no associated asset.