interesting signal about where AI is...

It actually feels like a signal that it is in a tapering phase.

As in, if it was in a growth phase a freeform, solo - collab with who you want, would be more beneficial. But in a tapering phase you'd want structure and to be in the private formal meetings.

just an idea

Or, you could fit the exactly opposite story to the same data:

Growth is when you want to have institutional support, to be at the tip, backed by infinite money and best compute infra, and benefit disproportionally from compounding. Conversely tapering is when you're best flying under the radar, and there's plenty of value both in ideas and in hardware, as the leading players shed excess they can't support anymore, ...

Feels like the opposite.

Stuff is still happening and you need to be part of a big lab to see it. NanoGPT is fun but at some point you need that datacenter.