The gamble, which was certainly egged on by Israel, was that two stars aligned and it was high time to strike Iran.

The first star was intense civilian unrest, the months leading up to the strikes was marked by riots and protests.

The second star was the meeting of Iran's top brass in one spot at one time, both of which Israel knew about.

It was almost certainly sold to Trump as a domino event, where the US would blow the head off and the people of Iran would ravage the body. On paper it looks clean, and certainly he was riding on a high after the swift coup in Venezuela.

Of course though, that did not happen, and now he had to go to China to beg under a thin veil for them to pressure Iran to back off. Trump rolled a critical failure on what appeared to be a moderate-low risk attempt.