It’s amazing to see some people talk with 100% confidence about the macro view of AI assisted development when we have had strong coding agents available for less than a year.

Exactly and the tools weren't even that great for most of that year. They only got properly usable around the end of last year. At least for me. I'd call it more like half a year.

If you don't like the state of technology with AI tools, just wait a few weeks. Things are still changing at a quite rapid pace. The scope of what is possible seems to shift regularly. A lot of what I did in the last weeks was complete science fiction even a year ago.

This article makes a few good points though. AI won't magically make processes faster. You might actually have to change the process. A lot of processes in companies are about people and how they communicate. The more people you have, the more communication you get. It's an exponential. Using AI in that context just adds to the communication noise.

But if you restructure your processes you might get different results. Most companies have not really gone through that process yet. It's too early to call success or failure. And especially non technical people have mostly not yet experienced any agentic tooling at all. We've yet to see how that will change companies. My guess is that some companies will be better at this than others. And we'll see a bit of darwinism play out.