> The law only applies for certain types of processes

Did you even read the post? It’s an estimate in the context where you have zero information on which to base an accurate estimate. The author’s point is that if you’re making a different estimate you need to actually say what information is informing that.

Human lifespan is obviously not a case where we have zero information, so what is your point in bringing that up?

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t43562 an hour ago | parent [-]

The lifespan argument shows how important it is to have more than zero information.

	▲	btilly 22 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Yes, it is valuable to have more than zero information. But often we don't have the information that we wish. Even more often, the information that we have leads us to a story, that severely misleads us. Reminding ourselves of the zero information version of the story, can be an antidote to being mislead that way. Therefore it is valuable to know how to make the most out of zero information. And if we have information, to think about exactly why it leads to a different conclusion.