And how long do you think that window will remain open? I expect anyone not running a closed system (hardware attestation) is going to not only be locked out of things like banking apps, government apps, etc., but also if Google has its way, you’ll be prevented from accessing those things on the web as well, maybe even from your desktop. We just saw that story a few days ago with them replacing CAPTCHA tech with “prove you have an unmodified locked-down Google or Apple phone.”

Clearly there is a single driving agenda, which Google and the government are largely in harmony on, to try to approach 100% real-identity-tying to every activity done online.

Where once, “online” meant generally greater anonymity than “IRL” activities, since most things could be signed up for with an arbitrary throwaway email address and no proof of identity. It is now or shortly will be the opposite.

Forever, honestly. I don't see things actually becoming as closed as you predict. I will avoid banks that require me to do any of that (I already don't use any that report to credit agencies, avoiding ones that don't work on the web browser is much easier). There is about 1 site I use that uses the google captcha and that is archive.today, I will swiftly stop using it if I can't use it with open software, and I doubt they would keep it around in that case anyway.

This is very SaaS optimal. I never use these types of services on a "smartphone" device. I honestly think my OS (derived from AOSP) is more secure than googles "trust." Every android device is not an identity tied to a account. Many phones exist with no accounts whatsoever.