| ▲ | jmyeet 5 hours ago | |
The SpaceX IPO may go down as one of the most manipulated in US history. I'd actually like to see the likes of Vanguard and Blackrock do is ignore the rules that will force passive funds to invest in SpaceX on a small float, creating passive funds with their own rules that won't invest in small floats. I know I'd move my money to more "total market" type funds that required their investments to be sufficiently liquid. It may not even come to that. I think if large pension funds and the large mutual fund managers coming out and saying "we don't trust this process" will probably be sufficient pressure to change it. There are two other issues with SpaceX in particular that kind of show just what a house of cards the Elon Empire is: 1. The whole xAI bailout. This isn't a new tactic. Elon did it with SolarCity where one of his companies bought another of his companies who owed a lot of money to yet another of his companies. Elon way overpaid for Twitter. Fidelity had slashed the valuation by as much as 80%. Elon rescued himself from a margin call on his Tesla shares by raising money for xAI and using that to buy Twitter. But now the xAI investors who (IMHO) felt fleeced had to be rescued and so SpaceX "bought" xAI. So the problem is that I've seen reports that xAI is losing >$1B/month. That's a huge drain on SpaceX's estimated ~$15B of annual revenue where it's already losing money due to the Starship program cost and delays; 2. Allegedly, one of the biggest buyers of Cybertrucks is (drum roll please) SpaceX. So, again, one Elon company is rescuing another. I have huge respect for what SpaceX achieved with Falcon 9 but honestly, I wouldn't touch any of this, as an investor, wtih a 10 foot barge pole. At least, not until the SpaceX float gets sufficiently large and the lock ups on selling expire so you get a true market picture of its value. And I think passive investors need to rewrite their rules to do this too. | ||