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underyx 7 hours ago

> the slow performance decays

the decays are just more capable other models entering the population, making all prior models lose more frequently

TekMol 4 hours ago | parent [-]

No, that is not how ELO scores work.

qnleigh 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

As far as I understand, this is exactly how ELO scores work. If a more capable show up and starts beating all the other models, it literally takes ELO points from everyone else.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

TekMol an hour ago | parent | next [-]

    If a more capable show up and starts
    beating all the other models
There is an instance of this in the chart. In 2025-06-24 when Gemini-2.5-pro shows up. As you can see, the ELO of the others do not drop.
harperlee 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Depends on the test design; is an agent competing against other agent in a given match, or against a test? Plus! Does the test's ELO fluctuate?

tasuki 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes, that is in fact how Elo can work[0]. There are quite many ways Elo systems can work.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

whiplash451 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It depends what you use as an anchor. If the anchor is a fixed model, you’re right. If the anchor is updated to a better model over time, then the elo of historical models degrades, right?