If you trust the other party, you can always write a derivative contract. If the other party was long, their position is closed. If they weren't, they're short now.

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Analemma_ 18 hours ago | parent [-]

That's part of the problem though, this is kind of a no-trust transaction to start with since it's inherently fraudulent. As Matt Levine said this morning:

'Also, just, consider the situation here. I come to you and say “hey I have some Anthropic shares, I can’t sell them now but I’ll sell you a forward on them.” You say “isn't that not allowed?” I say “oh sure it’s not allowed but I am a rebel, I’m not bound by those pesky rules.” You’re like “okay I guess” and give me money, now, for shares in the future. How do you know I even have the shares in the first place? What if I’m just lying? You already know that I am willing to break some rules; what if I’m breaking the rules against fraud?'

I don't even think you could buy hedges or insurance against this counterparty risk, because Anthropic could probably get those voided in court too.

	▲	boring-human 18 hours ago \| parent [-]
		If you're afraid of buying derivatives from a trustworthy party that may have contractual obligations with Anthropic, but them from a trustworthy party that doesn't. If they expected a $100 post-IPO price one year from now, they'd short-sell you a derivative for $200 or whatever. Derivatives are legal, and as ethical as anything else in finance (more ethical than just about all crypto.)