I keep thinking this but... line keep going up.

I've seen reporting that energy prices won't return to pre-war levels this calendar year, even assuming an immediate return to the status quo basically right now (which seems unlikely).

I find the whole thing really confusing. The facts I can see with my own eyes suggest high inflation and this surely means no substantial rate cuts (which... the market has expected) if not reduced consumer spending and risk of recessions.

But the markets think everything is... fine? So... what are we missing here?

We probably aren't missing anything. It just can't happen right now because if the stock market capitulates then it does so for years and everyone loses a bunch of money. Their only option is to hope for some kind of end or bailout or whatever that keeps getting further away, and they've pushed that hope way past reason.

> But the markets think everything is... fine? So... what are we missing here?

The current rally is extremely narrow, mostly just AI/Big Tech and chip stocks. But yeah, the "market" appears to believe that this will all be over soon, which seems unlikely to me.

I should invest a non-trivial amount. That usually results in markets trending down.

> what are we missing here?

Markets is just gambling but the gamblers wear suits and pretend things are respectable.

It doesn't need to make sense, line just needs to go up. It works until it doesn't.

> But the markets think everything is... fine? So... what are we missing here?

You are missing that the current governance is very ready to print money to bailout any situation. The market can go down in nominal value but still up in dollar's.