I will say, this past inflation spike has completely broken the assumptions I had from 1970s economics that employers would raise their 'cost of living' raises to keep pace with inflation. My employer seems to think 2.5% is fine, as they've done it multiple years in recent past with only one extraordinary year netting 4%. I am now very skeptical of any so called 'wage price spiral'

That's why macro economic data is based on nationally reported data from tens of thousands employers rather than just one company.

We can look at the data and clearly see the inflection point where wages started rising faster once the pandemic began.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECIWAG

And looking at real wages, we can see that wages have actually outpaced inflation since ~2015

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Employers pay you the least amount of money it takes to keep you from working somewhere else. It's always been true and it probably always will be.

> I am now very skeptical of any so called 'wage price spiral'

The wage-price spiral now happens when people move. I've definitely noticed that average salaries for my role (data person) have increased singificantly since 2020 or so.

Employers will increase your wages just enough to keep you from leaving.

With structural disincentives to leaving (medical coverage in the US), that is almost always a less-than-inflation amount.

Do employers even call it a COL increase any more? My employer "rebranded" the annual raises as "merit increases" many years ago.

Nobody gives you cost of living increases. That's not how a market works. You get cost of LABOR increases. These are related but only indirectly.