If they can do those things they can effectively replace any white collar job. That’s about 45% of the workforce. Societies tend to collapse around 25-30% unemployment.

Imagine 45% of higher than average paying jobs gone.

If that happens we’ll either figure out a new economic system, or society will collapse.

Also saying robots are walking just fine is misleading for any definition of just fine that is anywhere near as good as a human.

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ryandrake 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Look at how the billionaires are talking about AI: Their clear, unambiguous goal is basically to replace all white collar "knowledge" jobs. And there's currently nothing regulatory that's stopping them--they just need to wait for the state of the art to improve. Once AI is "good enough" if it ever is, they won't even think twice about 45% unemployment. What are we unemployed workers going to do about it? There's no effective labor organization left. Workers have basically no political power or seat at the table. We're not going to get violent--the police/military are already owned by the billionaire class. We're just going to eventually become economically irrelevant and die off.

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geodel 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> We're just going to eventually become economically irrelevant and die off.

As harsh it may sound, it seems rather likely to me. It is not like s/w engineers have helped struggling workers in other sectors other than sanctimonious "Learn to code" advice. So software folks can't expect any solidarity or help from others.

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kiba 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The fundamental issue isn't unemployment due to automation, but the fact that society cannot benefit from unemployment.

It should be something for us to celebrate, because it means greater freedom for humans to pursue something else rather than spending time doing drudgery.

	▲	shinryuu an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Put it another way, the issue is that resources are not shared more equitably. This is especially egregious considering that LLMs are trained on all human knowledge. We've all been contributing to this enterprise, and what we may end up getting in return is unemployment.

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monknomo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

45% of folks sitting on their hands are going to have the free time to talk, and this group of people are skilled at organization. Are you planning on throwing your hands up and passively accepting whatever comes your way?

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rootusrootus an hour ago | parent [-]

And at least in the US they have >45% of all the small arms weaponry. There is no bunker strong enough nor private army big enough if 100M people come for you.

	▲	ryandrake 39 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		They're probably be betting that the technology they will need to defend their bunkers, think autonomous kill-bots or whatever, will emerge before people start to riot. Or they're planning to build an Elysium-like colony in the ocean or space, to keep the billionaire class far from danger.

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rootusrootus an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I get that it is popular to hate billionaires these days, but realistically, they did not get to be billionaires by being stupid. It runs directly counter to their own interests to induce anything like 45% unemployment. They will get poorer, the world they live in right along with the rest of us will get noticeably shittier, etc.

More likely they figure out what to do with a bunch of idle talent. Or the coming generation of trillionaires will.

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2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[deleted]

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BurningFrog 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's important (and calming) to understand that since the Industrial Revolution started ~250 years ago, we've automated away most jobs several times over, while employment levels have stayed pretty constant.

"Automating half the jobs" is the same as "double productivity per worker".

When the doubling happens in 5 years rather than 50, it might be more disruptive, but I'm convinced we're on the verge of huge improvements in human standard of living!

	▲	wartywhoa23 an hour ago \| parent [-]
		What in the current state of world affairs outside of IT do you think is indicative of that potential for huge improvements in human standard of living?