What you described are senior developers and system architects.

Junior developers spend most of their time writing code (when they're not forced to attend pointless standups, because Agile/blah/blah)

> The developers who still think their job is about writing code will perhaps not have a job in the future.

So you're saying the same thing everyone else is saying. SWEs won't go away, but they will be greatly reduced, because those whose job is about writing code -- junior devs -- will be replaced.

(How will Sr Devs in the future be created? That's the question, isn't it.)

> How will Sr Devs in the future be created?

As an extreme example, maybe we’ll see long-running internships and trainings like doctors experience. Doctors don’t start their career until ~12+ years of prep and training.

Pragmatically, software development has a lot of examples of teenagers making apps and college students building software companies. In the 12 years it takes for training, low-knowledge workers could be vibe coding continuously replacements of most commercial software products they’d be hired to build. So I doubt we’ll treat software development as a rarified high skill job.