They have already shown that their models match or excel over American ones in different cases. For cheaper too.

I disagree on the second point. I think most Americans don't prefer fewer competition, that's a bit antithetical to the free market.

I doubt the Chinese government cares as much about controlling a few companies as you think they do.

China has a few things going for it beyond research. They are mission driven, they actually have needs for this technology, their needs will forward their entire economy as they are the world's largest manufacturers. They are also huge exporters and have buckets of customer support for various languages.

China also has considerably stronger infrastructure for electricity, etc. even with an nividia embargo they are doing more than showing up.

I don't think it's a matter of who "wins". There is no winning. I think China stands to gain far more from LLMs than the US does, and they have proven they don't need the us to do it, even with he us trying to sabotage it's every move into the space. The game is already more or less over in my mind.

If anything I see LLMs as having a huge market in China, and now the US can't even sell it to them.

All I care about is, if I have to use this technology, let me run it locally to avoid the surveillance capitalism aspect. That seems to be the real reason the us has propped up it economy in anticipation for this technology. Yet it doesn't long term benefit the us nor me.