Ha! It's funny I didn't notice that juxtaposition when I was writing it.

Understandable take. One counterpoint I would offer (with no proof, so take it or leave it) is that what I mostly see is engineers get passed up for promos that I feel they deserve. I think a large part of that is cutbacks - they haven't done layoffs, but around the time I started, they started cutting benefits, cutting RSUs, and my manager literally told me "due to budget constraints they are going to scrutinize promos very heavily going forward."

But! I don't work at a FAANG or an AI firm or anywhere with an extreme performance culture either. So regardless of YOE, if you're skilled, motivated, and a little lucky, you can really shine...