I'm curious to check how faster AAA games will hit the market in the next years compared to the pre-LLM era. Or how much of the aging COBOL code base out there will disappear in the next decade.

When concrete things like that start to happen, then I will start to believe in the 10x claim.

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chickensong 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm not sure those are great examples. Why not just consider normal apps?

I don't think we'll see AAA game velocity change until asset generation progresses quite a bit, not to mention stuff like rigging. Even then, there's still a layer between code and engine where you have to wire everything together which an LLM will struggle with.

Replacing some old COBOL is probably more of a management decision based on appetite for change and politics rather than development speed.

Aren't there some measurable things like github repo creation, PRs, app store additions, etc. that can be correlated to LLM adoption? Didn't Show HN have to get throttled after LLMs arrived?

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Towaway69 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I think your answer is the reason why. LLM performance is fine when applied to everything they can do.

Take LLM out that safe space and suddenly they are no silver bullet, in fact they are unless.

So of course those making the 10x claim mean in the safe space where LLM can handle all activities required. You can’t have it both ways 10x and difficult and confusing tasks for LLMs.

	▲	chickensong 17 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Right, I get that. I'm just saying it seems wrong to throw up minority examples. Nobody is pumping out AAA games at speed with LLMs, nor is anyone claiming to do so. There will likely always be some areas where LLMs are bad or useless. How many people are writing crud apps using mainstream languages vs COBOL though? You don't need 100% silver bullet 1-shot everything, just to recognize the signals that for many use cases, there's a significant shift happening. The safe space is expanding and velocity is increasing.

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plausibility 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I feel like that’s tied to the hardware the companies are using. All the banks I’ve worked at run z/OS mainframes, can they even deploy modern run of the mill Go/Python/Rust code or is getting off COBOL reliant on hardware changes?