Given the request about engaging with this specific article:

>Ive thought hard about how to sell prediction markets to consumers. In 2020, I created Google’s current internal prediction market. Since then, I’ve served as the CTO of Metaculus, a non-market-based crowd-forecasting website, and now run FutureSearch, a startup that provides AI forecasters and researchers.

I feel like openly saying you professionally try to make people believe in markets reduced the impact of any further claim.

>Still, there is a benefit to speed. On March 11, 2026, the Financial Times reported that, upon news of Iran War escalation, the Polymarket odds of inflation at or above 2.8% rose to above 90%. This illustrated an immediate domestic impact to US foreign policy, which could influence the public in a way that updates months later from professional economists might not.

I don't understand the idea that this or similar predictions are of any value? "People strongly believe a war will worsen inflation" is information you could get anywhere and not necessarily based on any high quality decision making.

Its based on high quantity decision making, and quantity is a sort of quality if you squint and turn your head