Insider trading is a part of it. If someone bets a few billion dollars that America will invade Iran, the probability shoots up to 98%, even though nobody else thinks it will happen. They can then run a press release about how their platform predicted the invasion before anyone else did.

These were Oscar predictions and similar. So no insider trading and, when I wrote about, the prevalence of major prediction sites on the Internet seemed to degrade the crowd wisdom because so many people just went with what a few sites were picking.