I think what you’re missing is there was never any real progress.

* Oil futures (not spot price) have been completely detached from reality, with credible evidence of corrupt insiders making money by front-running Trump’s social media posts

* Negotiations never went anywhere; despite Trump’s social media claims (see point 1), they barely even got to the negotiation table

* There is no potential for an exit that doesn’t leave us worse off than where we started, because Iran is control of whether the conflict continues, not the US, and it’s in their best interest to continue the conflict until they get major concessions (like permanent ability to tax the straight)

In short, the Trump administration is a clown show whose only really competence is corruption.