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tsunamifury 11 hours ago

This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change.

An increasingly old demographic will sabatoge the future of humanity as they drain enormous resources and abuse democratic processes to reroute resources to their preservation of life over young people and familes.

Young people and families will choke to death under the strain of elders who demand unlimited services, money, support while outvoting them, staying in jobs and houses and giving little to nothing back to society.

Innovation will grind to a halt, families will continue to shrink, work hours will get longer and longer as taxes get higher and higher to pay for and increasingly super old leadership and voting base.

Society will begin to lose hope to solve problems like going into space or fixing climate change as increasingly the elderly population will obsess over themselves and continued life.

It is one of the hardest moral problems we will face in our era.

johngossman 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If only the olds would die we could build more datacenters!

More seriously, why wouldn't older, longer-lived people be more likely to address long-term problems like climate change?

diordiderot 3 minutes ago | parent [-]

whats wrong with datacenters?

ButlerianJihad 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

When 250 years old you reach, look as good, you will not!

MrBuddyCasino 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don’t know why people downvoted this because it is obviously correct. In a democracy you have to buy the votes of the largest constituency with other people’s money, which in this case is the boomers votes with the younger generations money. This will continue until nothing is left.

This already happened with the triple pension lock in GB, mathematically ensuring the bankruptcy of the state.

opo 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>...I don’t know why people downvoted this because it is obviously correct. In a democracy you have to buy the votes of the largest constituency with other people’s money,

In the last few decades both political parties in the USA have tried to outdo each other in reckless over-spending, but for the first couple hundred years that wasn't the case. Something changed.

croon 16 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

There wasn't a speculative economy based on increasingly distant balance sheets.

The stock market was initially created to crowdfund big investments. It's still that in theory, but in practice it's something very different now.

In a similar manner to bastardizing the stock market, the national budget is run in any way that is short term beneficial and long term nebulous.

MrBuddyCasino 12 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

You can read this exact criticism of democracy in „Athenaion Politeia“, (The Old Oligarch), 5th century BCE. There is nothing new under the sun.

It always worked like this. Democracy is simply an incredibly destructive form of government.

lenerdenator 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's happening in the US, too.

I know of a senior couple where the husband recently retired after forty years of working in a professional field. They live in a house worth over $750k that is paid off. They have three new or late-model vehicles. Both the husband and wife could, if necessary, work for an income.

They also collect Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance checks after enrolling for them. The common name for this is Social Security.

Why the hell are they able to collect on that? They have the ability to work and assets that could readily be made liquid to fund living expenses.

hilariously 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Because they were promised it - fundamentally leaving the rich out of the social safety net doesn't even get us much and administrating the distinction costs money, and I am no fan of the wealthiest get additional benefits.

I think solving inequality will not be about reducing access to said safety nets but increasing them for all.

WalterBright 9 hours ago | parent [-]

The problem with "solving inequality" is there is no incentive for one to do better. If one can live as well as everyone else, with no effort, why should one make the effort?

hilariously 37 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

True, but I dont think any UBI scheme says "everyone live at the same level" more like "everyone gets enough to not die" which is a very different framing.

Work or die vs Work to gain additional benefits.

Terr_ 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Kind of a strawman though, innit? If "civilization will stagnate and humans will be unmotivated blobs" is one extreme, then the other is something like "condoning economic genocide".

In reality, few are concerned that Alice has a much nicer car than Bob, compared to concerns that Bob will die without insulin. Get Bob his insulin, and he will still be motivated to have a nicer car.

WalterBright 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Kind of a strawman though, innit?

Not at all. It's the primary reason why communes fail.

nixon_why69 an hour ago | parent [-]

I think there's likely a steel man version of "solving inequality" that's a little less radical than "establish a commune".

Something like "arrest the trend towards upward accumulation which also reduces incentives to excel", maybe.

WalterBright 12 minutes ago | parent [-]

If we did that, we wouldn't have SpaceX, Nvidia, AI, etc.

croon 3 minutes ago | parent [-]

There are points in history where the productivity increases were more equitably spread, and we still got lasers, microwaves, MRI, mRNA, microchips, the internet, etc, etc, from national funding no less.

WalterBright 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Why the hell are they able to collect on that?

People in the higher income brackets get far less back on SS than they paid in.

Terr_ 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think it's important to emphasize that much of the in/out money asymmetry in SS is not rich versus poor ... but old versus dead.

Which, incidentally, is good and proper! OASDI is an insurance policy to cover an (alive) person faced with starvation or living in a ditch. That's a very different set of tradeoffs from an investment account that can pass to children who don't need it.

Like all insurance, it depends on a portion of people who pay in and then don't need it, even if sometimes that's because they've, er, passed beyond all material needs.

catgary 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah, because they aren’t in need of a social safety net.

lenerdenator 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They shouldn't get any.

This is a fund for widows, orphans, and those who are simply unable to earn any sort of money to fund their survival. They're none of the above.

WalterBright 10 minutes ago | parent [-]

SS was set up as an annuity, not a charity.

toast0 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect.

Social Security as an insurance product is fiction, but playing into the fiction helps it survive to do the thing it was built for: keep the elderly out of the poor houses / off the street.

Payout rates drop at higher income, and portions of the payout are taxable at higher income, so it's not like it's completely income/wealth blind.

lenerdenator 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect.

That's just it: they're not old. Not in the way a 65-year-old was old in the 1930s.

If they had to farm, mine, log, or work in a factory, yeah, they'd be too old to work. That was most of the work available when OASDI was created, and that's what it's for: to keep you from becoming destitute as an elderly person when there is no ability to work.

But they don't have to do those things. We're a service economy now and most of that involves sitting at a desk or very light office labor. They can still do that to sustain their lifestyle. Failing that, they could liquidate assets.

We're handing out money to people as a treat for their 65th b-day while the national debt is continuing to rise and their kids are crushed under loan debt, medical debt, and further revenue extraction to keep the shares backing retirement accounts increasing in value.

MrBuddyCasino 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They get much more out of it than they paid in. The younger cohorts get much less out of it than they paid in.

Thats not insurance, that’s generational fraud. It’s a ponzi scheme.

bruce511 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you work for 40 years, chances are you will have accumulated some assets. I'm not sure that "sell your house and cars to pay for food" is a policy that will be popular.

Equally those same people have paid taxes for 40 years, paid into social security (to the benefit of their elders) and so on.

Keeping them in the work-force is largely undesirable. A job occupied by a 70 year old is a job not occupied by someone younger. If retirement age was say 80 instead of 60, there would be 25% fewer jobs to go around. (using imprecise simple math).

Look, most all of us will get old and eventually claim on social security or whatever. Politically just "ending that" is pretty much a non-starter to anyone who has been contributing for any length of time. Even fiddling with the edges of it (raising the retirement age) will get you voted out of office.

Steve16384 13 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> If retirement age was say 80 instead of 60, there would be 25% fewer jobs to go around.

By that logic, when the population was 25% less than it is now (~1980s), there was a job for everyone.

opo 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>... If retirement age was say 80 instead of 60, there would be 25% fewer jobs to go around. (using imprecise simple math).

Economists refer to this idea as the lump of labour fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

WalterBright 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Keeping them in the work-force is largely undesirable.

That presumes there are a fixed number of jobs. Anyone can create a job, even doing simple things like going door to door and offering to mow the lawn.

nixon_why69 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

SS has to pay everyone to be viable. If you make it more complicated the politics turn into a nightmare.

adrianN 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Social security is already a redistribution scheme, it already is more complicated.

throw-234 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> They have three new or late-model vehicles.

Depends on geography of course, but it's not rare at all for boomers to have this many houses as a normal part of how they experienced middle-class life. As a group they are not only more likely to have rental/investment property, but also more likely to have multiple such properties. Why would they sell? They can get you to pay for all their services, and vote as a block to deny and remove services elsewhere.

lenerdenator 2 minutes ago | parent [-]

Because that cannot continue in perpetuity. The cracks are already starting to show. If I were in my 60s faced with the real possibility of living another 15-30 years I'd want the younger people to feel like they had something to look forward to. Many young and middle-aged people in the US don't feel that way. What they can't get through the ballot box, they'll get other ways, ways that will cause others to say "I'm not saying I agree, I'm saying I understand."

It's the job of government to make sure that doesn't happen, not cater to it.