| ▲ | redwood 2 hours ago | |
It's a multi-layered question. On the one hand if energy is more expensive and you still consume roughly the same amount but actually that raises gdp. However you're assuming that there's demand destruction with the rise of energy was your reasonable assumption... but that's uneven and there's going to be an increase in demand for certain things that actually benefit from higher energy prices like anything in electric tech or green energy. Probably most importantly the economy at this point is largely a digital economy rather than one centered on goods.. in other words GDP growth is no longer coupled to energy consumption. The fact that we're able to transition to a largely remote workforce around covid is a testament to this. The implication is that in the event that these high prices sustain and there is some demand destruction a lot of fundamental parts of the economy will continue to function in an evolved way for example online. And then of course there's AI which could be considered sort of an extension of this digital economy which is driving so much of the underlying growth. That doesn't mean there won't be hot spots like this article is pointing out perhaps the UK is particularly exposed. On the other hand the fact that so much of the UK's economy is financial services and hence in a way benefits from all this volatility ... means it is not all so clear. It would be easier to say that the real impact will be on the manufacturing powerhouses but even they will benefit from the transition to a solar and battery based energy system. Now if you believe that it's inevitable that this bubble will have a slowdown and you speculate that the bubble might be partially punctured by these high energy prices that seems like a reasonable hypothesis... but it could also be the opposite.. In other words the demand destruction for energy could actually mean capital is looking for a place to invest fruitful elsewhere. Counterintuitive as it all may seem, this system is simply not one anyone can reasonably expect to make predictions around at least any more reliably than walking into a casino and expecting to beat the house. Similarly the experts and talking heads telling you the implications of this war or the Ukraine war are making one dimensional predictions that are simply not honest enough about how chaotic and reflexive these systems are | ||