That's assuming the governments, policies, and economic conditions of China, US, and the world in May 2026 stay static.

I can't see China changing course. They're all in on renewables for energy independence. It's already the cheapest source of energy. They're exporting panels and batteries everywhere too.

I hope the US does change policies.

▲

Karrot_Kream an hour ago | parent [-]

China can continue to rely on coal for energy independence also. We're seeing this as countries that depended on LNG started firing coal plants again with the Hormuz crisis in effect. As a strong believer in climate change, it's admirable that China is innovating in renewables, but it's not a prerequisite for energy independence. They're already facing anemic job growth and overbuilt infrastructure capacity. If the government wants to redirect investment and spending elsewhere, they can switch back to coal plants rather than necessarily turning on renewables.

Manufacturing and shipping EVs I agree is going nowhere because they continue to be the leader and an increasing number of developing and underdeveloped countries are finding it easier to light up electrical sources than import oil.

	▲	triceratops an hour ago \| parent [-]
		> China can continue to rely on coal for energy independence also. At the cost of air quality. People are getting used to cleaner air. It's hard to go back. Also the more solar they use, the more coal they can keep around for emergencies. The sun is free energy. In 2025 China recorded a decline in generation from coal for the first time ever. [1] 1. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/china/#data