| ▲ | HarHarVeryFunny 2 hours ago | |
> Software is going to pile up because developing it is now cheap. Software to do what, though ?! Coding, maybe 10% of a developers job (Brooks "Silver Bullet" estimates 1/6), was never the bottleneck, and even if you automated that away entirely then you've only reduced development time by 10% (assuming you are not doing human code review etc). I would also argue that software development as a whole (not just the coding part) was also typically never the bottleneck to companies shipping product faster, maybe also not for automating their business faster (internal IT systems), since the rest of the company is not moving that fast, business needs are not changing that fast, and external factors that might drive change are not moving that fast either. I think that when the dust settles we'll find that LLM-assisted coding has had far less impact than those trying to sell it to us are forecasting. There will be exceptions of course, especially in terms of what a lone developer can do, or how fast a software startup can get going, but in terms of impact to larger established companies I expect not so much. | ||