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dhosek 2 hours ago

One of the weird things about our world is that money is central to everything, but it’s hard to understand how it works. There’s a great deal of handwaving around how, for example, dollars are created, much of which is, in fact, not correct at all (most dollars are created not by the government, or even the Federal Reserve, but by private banks, via a mechanism which I will not pretend to fully understand).

The big flaw of Bitcoin, to my mind, is that it is an inherently deflationary currency. Deflation is one of those things that seems great on the surface: prices go down, not up, but when that happens it ends up creating an economic incentive to avoid spending since why buy something today if it will be cheaper tomorrow, and this ends up causing economic activity to slow down or stop entirely. A small amount of inflation, on the other hand creates an incentive to either spend money or invest it in something that will provide a better than inflation return, whether that’s putting it in a high-yield savings vehicle or making capital or financial investments. With deflation, you can just leave your funds in cash (where they will not provoke any economic growth) and get a return.

newsy-combi 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I thought private banks create money the moment they take out a credit from the central bank. The central bank's job is to set the interest rate for those loans, et viola.

ballofrubber1 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I’d argue that this is more of a feature than a bug.

The assumption behind the “deflation is bad” argument is that spending itself is the goal. But spending is not automatically good. Productive spending and productive investment are good. Wasteful consumption, speculation, and forced risk-taking are not.

If money holds its value, people become more selective. They still buy food, housing, tools, entertainment, experiences, and things they genuinely want. Humans have needs, preferences, status impulses, advertising pressure, and finite lives. Demand does not disappear just because money is sound. What disappears is some of the artificial urgency to spend before your cash loses value.

The more important point is investment. In an inflationary system, holding money is punished, so everyone is pushed out onto the risk curve. You are not only investing because an opportunity is great; you are investing because the currency is being diluted and you need to escape it. That distorts the real cost of capital and makes mediocre investments look better than they are in nominal terms.

With harder money, investment has to beat the return of simply holding the money. That is a healthy hurdle rate. Capital should have to prove that it creates real value. If an investment only makes sense because the denominator is being debased, or because everyone is forced into assets to avoid inflation, then maybe that investment was not as productive as it looked.

This also matters for inequality. Inflation does not hit everyone equally. People with capital can protect themselves by owning stocks, real estate, ETFs, businesses, and other assets. They can diversify, borrow against assets, and ride asset inflation. Poorer people are more likely to hold wages and cash, so they are the ones whose purchasing power gets diluted first. Then they are told to “just invest,” but they are competing against people who already have capital, better access, better tax treatment, and more room to take risk.

So inflationary money quietly forces the poor to compete with the rich on the rich person’s playing field: asset ownership. A broad ETF may look like a safe wealth-preservation tool for someone with money, but for someone living paycheck to paycheck, the need to buy risk assets just to avoid being diluted is itself a problem.

A deflationary or hard-money system would probably reduce some marginal consumption and speculative investing. But that is not obviously bad. It may mean fewer bad investments, less artificial asset inflation, and more pressure for capital to flow only into things that genuinely outperform money itself. It would also be much more sustainable, not just economically but materially: if money no longer pressures everyone to consume and invest constantly just to outrun debasement, there is less incentive to waste real-world resources on unnecessary production, overconsumption, and short-lived goods.

The fear is that nobody would spend. But people do not stop buying things just because they expect their money to hold value. They stop buying things that are not worth giving up good money for. That sounds like discipline, not economic failure.

tardedmeme an hour ago | parent [-]

In a deflationary system, rich people just hold money, and earn more in interest from holding the money, than everyone else earns combined. They use that interest to buy things from the poor while not producing or investing themselves. Poor people realize if they switch currencies they can have more things because they don't have to give a percentage of everything to the rich. This makes the system unstable.

Bitcoin might be approaching it.

Spending shouldn't be the goal, but exchange of goods and services should be. Representation of real value should be a goal. If you can receive real goods and services as a consequence of holding numbers on a spreadsheet, instead of a consequence of providing real goods and services yourself, the economy has a problem. Maybe a system with zero inflation or very slight deflation can be stable, but the extreme deflation seen in Bitcoin is destabilising.

ballofrubber1 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

This still does not work.

“Holding money and earning interest from holding it” is a category error. Holding Bitcoin pays zero yield. No coupon, no dividend, no debtor, no tax stream, and no mechanism by which poor people pay holders a percentage. If someone earns interest, they are not merely holding money; they are lending it, which means they are taking risk and providing capital.

The “numbers on a spreadsheet” objection is also just an objection to money itself. Money exists so someone can produce value today, save the claim, and exchange it later for real goods and services. That is not a bug. That is saving.

A non-inflationary currency is actually a better representation of real value, because the unit is not constantly being diluted. Inflationary money lets nominal wealth rise even when no real value was created. Hard money makes the test harsher: did you actually create value, or did the measuring stick just get worse?

And no, people would not “just sit on Bitcoin.” People still eat, rent, travel, build, compete, seek status, start companies, buy homes, and take risks to outperform others. The only thing that changes is the hurdle rate: an investment has to be better than simply holding money. That is not economic failure. That is discipline.

The fair criticism of Bitcoin is volatility and unequal distribution, not this imaginary mechanism where holders magically receive interest from the poor by owning spreadsheet entries. That mechanism does not exist.

EDIT: The rich/poor angle is almost backwards. In an inflationary system, holding money is a guaranteed loss, so ordinary people are forced to become amateur investors just to avoid being debased. Rich people are already positioned for that: they own assets, businesses, real estate, equities, and can borrow cheaply against them.

In a non-inflationary or hard-money system, simply holding money is not a guaranteed losing strategy. You keep your share unless you voluntarily take risk to increase it. That is a very different game. The rich can still get richer, but they have to outperform by allocating capital well, not merely by being closest to the asset-inflation machine.

Same with wages. Under inflation, your employer can cut your real salary without saying anything: they just give you a raise below inflation, or no raise at all. You have to fight constantly just to stay even.

Under hard money, that hidden pay cut is much harder. If prices are falling or money is appreciating, keeping the same nominal salary can mean your real wage rises. To reduce your real compensation, the employer has to make the cut explicit or offset it with benefits. That is a completely different power dynamic.

So no, inflation is not obviously pro-poor. Very often it is a quiet tax on people least able to escape cash and wages.

tardedmeme 3 minutes ago | parent [-]

Real value deteriorates due to entropy. If I harvested some lettuce this week, in a year I don't still have lettuces - I have a pile of stinky mush. Keeping value steady requires a continual input of effort.

I'd accept "leaky currency" as a substitute for inflation. The important thing about inflation is that you have to keep running just to stay in one place - not that the numbers keep going up. Stable prices are nice, I agree on that.

Bitcoin's volatility is caused by its deflationary nature. Monero is inflationary, and much less volatile.

In an inflationary system, normal people are forced to keep earning money. "Becoming amateur investors" is your way to say "keep generating real value". If you want to surpass Elon Musk you have to invest, but that's nothing to do with the inflationary currency. That's because Elon Musk uses deflationary currencies like land and Ponzi currencies like Tesla stock. He just sits on them, and he will get out of the Ponzi ones before the top because he controls them. As they say, bad money drives out good. But you cannot build a stable economy on hyper-volatile gambling.

an hour ago | parent | prev [-]
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