I think the problem with prediction markets is the ease of people changing the outcome and profiting on it from others expense.

It’s worse than insider trading as it’s betting that Kyle’s mom will bomb Gaza and then making it happen.

Any societal good from knowing is outweighed by the injustice.

If there was any regulation by government or the markets themselves then it would be better. Betting in things you can’t affect like the weather or earthquakes or elections or whatever is actually pretty useful for awareness.