The 2024 prediction market had like several large bettors on the Trump side https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-25/polymarke.... The Harris side had no equivalent counter-whales. So the ~60% Trump prediction was not really reflecting reality, more-so individual conviction. A more retail-only market would likely have priced it closer to 52–55% Trump, which matches with what the pollsters and mainstream media said.